Recipe/Example/Plain chips
Product
OFF: https://nl.openfoodfacts.org/product/8710398500410/lay-s-naturel
Ingredients: aardappelen, zonnebloemolie 27%, koolzaadolie 7%, zout
Nutrients: (30, 2.9, 53, 0.5, 5.2, 6.2, 0.835)
Ciqual
New potato, raw (4023) (0.3, 0.058, 15.9, 0.2, 1.3, 1.88, 0.058)
Sunflower oil (17440) (100, 11.1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.025)
Rapeseed oil (17130) (100, 7.26, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0)
Salt, white (sea, igneous or rock), iodine added, no other enrichment (11058) (0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 97.8)
Analysis
As expected there is a high correlation between the two oils. The two oils drive fat and saturated fat.
The potato drives the carbohydrates, sugar and oil.
Removing the fiber fit lowers the deviance to 0.03.
Recipe/Final ration of 3.63
Results
| Koptekst | Potato | Sunflower oil | Rapeseed oil | Salt | Deviance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unordered | 3.337 | 0.157 | 0.133 | 0.007 | 0.78 |
| Ordered | 3.337 | 0.157 | 0.133 | 0.007 | 0.78 |
-
Recipe -
Blame -
Fractions
- It seems that the potatoes used have more fiber than the Ciqual potatoes.
- The difference between both oils seems to be determined by the saturated fat.
- The recipe ratio's have no relation with those on the ingredients.
Claude Solver
Analysis
Fat (9%) and carbs (4%) fit well, confirming the two declared oil fractions and the potato solids proxy are consistent with the label. The solver recovers sunflower at 26.1g (declared 27%) and rapeseed at 6.3g (declared 7%) â within 1 percentage point of declared.
Potato proxy choice is the key modelling decision for chips. Raw potato (CIQUAL 4008, 16.2g carbs/100g) cannot explain 53g carbs in the chip because it still contains 78% water. Dehydrated potato flakes (CIQUAL 4022, 76.1gcarbs/100g) correctly represents the concentrated potato solids in the chip, and gives a 3.9% carbs error. The yield of ~100% reflects this: dehydrated potato flakes enter the frying process as-is (no water to evaporate), and the oil fraction determines the final composition.
Three large errors reflect chip-specific chemistry rather than CIQUAL inaccuracies:
Sugar (214% error, fitted 1.57g vs 0.5g): potato flakes contain 2.35g sugar/100g (mainly glucose and fructose). During deep-frying, these reducing sugars react with amino acids via the Maillard reaction, producing the characteristic golden colour and flavour of chips while consuming most of the sugar. The declared 0.5g is the residual after this reaction.
Fibre (33% error, fitted 6.9g vs 5.2g): CIQUAL dehydrated potato flakes carry 10.3g fibre/100g, higher than the 5.2g in these chips. Potato flakes are made from mashed whole potato and retain more of the cell-wall fibre; Lay's chips use thinly sliced potato where some fibre is removed with the skin during peeling.
Salt (55% error, fitted 0.37g vs 0.835g): the solver assigns zero to the salt ingredient because the declared oil fractions (27%+7%) together with the potato fraction already account for nearly 100% of S, leaving no budget for added salt.
The 0.37g salt in the model comes entirely from the potato flakes proxy (CIQUAL 4022 carries 0.55g salt/100g). The remaining ~0.46g salt from the declared "zout" ingredient is structurally unresolvable given the tight oil fraction constraints.
Sat_fat (19% moderate): CIQUAL sunflower oil has sat_fat = 11.1% of fat. The product's implied ratio (2.9/30 = 9.7%) is lower, suggesting the actual sunflower oil has a slightly lower saturate content than the CIQUAL average â consistent with high-oleic sunflower oil commonly used in premium crisps.